2013 MLB Postseason Preview

Last night the MLB regular season came to an end when the Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Texas Rangers in a one game playoff that decides whose going to play in a one game playoff against the Cleveland Indians. Thats not just a run-on sentence, that's also baseball. The MLB postseason is probably the most unpredictable of any of the major sports because it really does feel like any team has a shot. Sure, there are years where in the NFL and NBA theres maybe a surprise team that comes out and shocks everyone but I mean look at the past year in those sports. Did anyone really see anyone else than the Heat or the Ravens winning? Those sports are tailored to the favorites while in baseball any team can get hot and take the title. So who exactly is going to do it this year?

Making predictions as to who will win the World Series is a risky proposition because every team really does have an equal shot. Well, maybe not those guys who are in one-game playoffs. So lets start there and make this a little easier on ourselves.

Indians vs. Rays

Let's call the Indians baseball's most surprising team on the AL's end of the spectrum. Thats the Terry Francona effect. You know, the guy doesn't get enough respect for what he accomplished in Boston. everyone gives credit to the fact that the Red Sox had superior talent like Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Pedro Martinez, blah blah blah. Does anyone else understand how hard it was to manage all those personalities? Anyways, Francona has done a super job in Cleveland, a team thats been hovering around the mediocre spectrum for most of the past few years. Meanwhile, the Rays enter this game having won 7 out of their last 10 and they've had everything to play for in these past few weeks. Meanwhile, Cleveland has won 10 out of their lat 10. So this is really a matchup of baseball's two hottest teams. But lets get to the issue at hand, who wins this one game matchup. I'd say advantage to the Rays. A one-game playoff is all about who you've got on the mound that night and having thrown out a reigning Cy Young award-winning pitcher last night the rays can turn to their other ace, Matt Moore. Seriously, this dude knows how to handle pressure. His 2nd ever major league start was in the playoffs against the Texas Rangers in 2011 and he pitched flawlessly. This dude can handle a one-game playoff. Cleveland likely counters with Ubaldo Jimenez who has been phenomenal in recent starts finally getting back to the form that made him one of baseball's best pitchers back in 2010. Then theres the manager factor, Tampa Bay's Joe Maddon against Cleveland's Terry Francona. I shouldn't have to remind any other Red Sox fans about how Maddon frequently ran managerial circles around Francona during Francona's tenure in Boston. I like both of these teams, but I think the Rays have an advantage in a one-game series. If it were a regular 5 gamer I'd probably take the Indians but something tells me Rays here.

Pirates vs. Reds

Everybody loves the Pirates, they're baseball's darlings at the moment. How could they not be? They'd gone since 1992 without a winning season and the past two seasons have given their fans hope before crashing and burning right before the finish line. This year, the Pirates put up a complete campaign, even challenging for the division title. They had to settle for a wild-card spot but they'll take it considering how long it's been. However, it's likely that they'll be wishing that they had enough to push through that division title. I mean, lets face it the Pirates aren't exactly a spectacular baseball team. Their lineup, with the exception of Andrew McCutchen is pretty mediocre. They traded for Justin Morneau midseason to bat cleanup despite the fact that Morneau hasn't been cleanup worthy since about 2009. That and their opposition are the Reds, who have been down this path before. The Reds likely send Mat Latos to the mound, meanwhile the Pirates ponder their options between AJ Burnett and Francisco Liriano. I mean, sure, these guys were brilliant for them in the regular season but are they exactly guys you put your trust in for one game? Believe me, I want the Pirates to win and they definitely can win this one game. In fact, they're the team that probably gets hot at the right time all the way to the World Series. After all, the Pirates gave their all to get here and might not get a chance like this again. So then theres the Reds who have playoff veterans on their roster, boast a heavy hitting lineup, and have solid pitching. So theres no reason why they can't take this one game. I really find myself at a loss here because this is just one game and anything can happen. So lets see, I just spent most of this paragraph ripping on the Pirates so I'll pick them. In fact, I'm going to pick them because they're the underdogs and everyone has been discounting them from the picture simply because they're the Pirates. So thats why I'll pick them.

The Rest of the Field

Lets sum up who the media tells you are the favorites. The Red Sox, Tigers, Dodgers, and A's are all the popular picks for the title. My question though is why everyone seems to be discounting the Braves as a viable contender. I mean, they were the NL's most consistent team throughout the regular season, boast great pitching and a solid lineup. But enough about that, let's size up the contenders through each of the main facets of the game.

The Lineup
1.) Red Sox
2.) Tigers
3.) Dodgers
4.) Braves
5.) Cardinals

Call me a homer but the Red Sox easily have the deepest lineup in the bigs right now. The Tigers boast the twin headed giant of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder (which could probably win 2-3 games by itself) and a strong rest of the lineup. However, from top to bottom, the Red Sox are the best. Theres no easy out in that lineup. The X-factor for the Sox is Will Middlebrooks who, after his recall from his exile in AAA in the middle of the year, has been on fire. When he's hitting the Sox are an offensive force. Not to mention that they still boast David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mike Napoli. Plus an incredibly deep bench that boasts a player for every situation. The Dodgers, like the Tigers, have the star-studded lineup that makes them a favorite in their neck of the woods but, as the Red Sox proved, even the hottest hitters can be shut down with a good pitching performance. Both the Braves and the Cardinals boast strong and deep lineups.

The Rotation
1.) Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu/Ricky Nolasco)
2.) Tigers (Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Doug Fister)
3.) Red Sox (Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Jake Peavy/John Lackey)
4.) Braves (Kris Medlen, Julio Teheran, Mike Minor)
5.) Cardinals (Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn)

Dodgers have an easy advantage here. Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball at the moment hands down and Zack Greinke is an ace on his day. Not to mention the wealth of options they have for a 3rd starter. Ryu and Nolasco are both worthy candidates. Max Scherzer has certainly caught a lot of flak in the past few weeks due to people discounting his high win total as a product of massive run support. Either way, the Tigers have a fearsome three at the top of their rotation. One of them being Justin Verlander, remember him? The guy who could carry a team to the World Series all by himself? The Red Sox on paper have a great rotation. Jon Lester is a monster in the playoffs however Clay Buchholz is lacking in playoff experience. John Lackey brings a great deal of experience from his time on the Angels but since that huge Game 7 win back in 2002 as a rookie, he's struggled in the playoffs since. Jake Peavy has looked more like the 4-time All-Star and one-time Cy Young winner that he used to be since joining the Red Sox. The Braves have the most talent on paper for a three man rotation with Medlen, Teheran, and Mike Minor. However, these guys all lack experience. The Cardinals have a great ace in Adam Wainwright and an excellent number two in Shelby Miller. The big question is whether Lance Lynn can put his inconsistent regular season behind him. The A's meanwhile are relying on a 40 year old Bartolo Colon to be their ace for the postseason.

The Manager
1.) Jim Leyland, Tigers
2.) Terry Francona, Indians
3.) Joe Maddon, Rays
4.) John Farrell, Red Sox
5.) Mike Matheny, Cardinals

The most veteran member of this group, Jim Leyland, tops the list here. You can't doubt manager experience when it comes to the postseason. Leyland has navigated two Tigers teams to the World Series in his time as manager and he definitely has his best team yet here. Francona ranks number two here mostly because he's won two World Series titles and knows what it takes to keep a team cool and relaxed during the postseason. I don't think he's as good tactically as Joe Maddon or John Farrell but he's got more playoff success than the former and more experience than the latter. Maddon is probably the best tactical manager in the game but has often been exposed in the playoffs. John Farrell has a lot to prove considering he engineered the Red Sox turn around from worst to first this year. He's totally changed the Red Sox for the better. They do things now that they never did during the Francona era. (play small ball, steal bases, bunt, practice patience at the plate). In a few years Farrell will get up higher on this list. This is just the first time anyone has seen him in the playoffs. Mike Matheny has done a fantastic job in St. Louis this year navigating through injuries. He would have easily been manager of the year if Clint Hurdle didn't work miracles in Pittsburgh.

So...Who Wins?

If you can't tell from the picture above, I think that the Boston Red Sox have the best shot to win it all this year. This isn't just because I'm a homer and it's not just because they're the popular pick. For one, they've been the most consistent team this season. They've had nary a bad spell this season and have been in control of their division since April. They've navigated through adversity, such as losing their ace for most of the season, and have come out the other side fine. From top to bottom they're the most complete team (deep lineup, solid rotation, lights out bullpen). I just think the Red Sox have the most tools at their disposal to win the whole thing this year. Finally, they're such a close-knit team. These are no longer the toxic Red Sox of the past two seasons. These are a bunch of players who clearly love playing with one another and play hard every night. So thats that, the Red Sox are my pick but it wouldn't be a preview if I didn't include talk about the other teams.

Detroit Tigers

Why They'll Win: Great starting rotation, best one-two punch of hitters in their lineup, excellent manager.
Why They Won't: the bullpen is still weak and the rest of the lineup beyond Miggy and Fielder aren't as strong as other teams. Max Scherzer definitely hasn't pitched as well recently.

Oakland A's

Why They'll Win: It's a Billy Beane team, they simply find ways to win. Lineup is super hot right now and they can go 5-deep in their rotation.
Why They Won't: They just don't stack up as well talent-wise to the Red Sox or Tigers. Also, while their rotation does go 5-deep there are other teams here that go 4-deep with more quality.

Cleveland Indians

Why They'll Win: Proven manager with a winning pedigree and are the hottest team entering the postseason right now.
Why They Won't: God hates Cleveland, a championship team from Cleveland would likely set off the apocalypse. All jokes aside, Cleveland's been hot but Ubaldo Jimenez can be hot and cold and doesn't have a great track record in the postseason. In fact, most of Cleveland's players don't. Can the team keep relying on guys like Scott Kazmir?

Tampa Bay Rays

Why They'll Win: Their best two starting pitchers are as good as anybody's. Like the A's they're a great team that finds a way to win. They've been playing for their playoff lives the past few weeks, expect that mentality to continue into the playoffs.
Why They Won't: When was the last time the Rays really made noise in the playoffs? (2008 when they made the World Series). Their lineup doesn't exactly strike fear into opponents and Fernando Rodney isn't exactly what he was last season.

Atlanta Braves

Why They'll Win: Boast the best young talent of any team (especially their rotation). Have the league's best closer.
Why They Won't: Track record in the playoffs hasn't been great the past few seasons. Rotation is great but these guys still have barely tasted playoffs before.

St. Louis Cardinals

Why They'll Win: They have a bonafide ace whose won two World Series titles and plenty of players who have been here before. They're the Cardinals.
Why They Won't: Back end of the rotation does not inspire the same kind of confidence as the front. Teams can expose them like the Giants did last season.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Why They'll Win: Hottest team since May, the Dodgers have momentum and money on their side. Most talented team on paper. Have the kind of players (like Yasiel Puig) that make the difference in postseason games.
Why They Won't: The Dodgers are the sexy pick to come out of NL bracket but over the course of 7 games would you take them over the playoff-tested Cardinals or the youthful Braves? I'd put more money on Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez disappearing when their team needs them most.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Why They'll Win: They're unbelievably excited for the postseason and they have the "Nobody Believes in Us" card to play. Bullpen has been great all year, expect the same here. They have one of the top-5 players in the league right now.
Why They Won't: They've had a great season definitely but they don't stack up well talent-wise against they other teams in the bracket. Can their lineup stack up against guys like Kershaw, Medlen, Wainwright, or Greinke?

Cincinnati Reds

Why They'll Win: They have the talent to contend with any team in the bracket.
Why They Won't: They don't inspire confidence in the way that the other teams in their bracket do. They don't have the spirit of the Pirates or the talent of the Dodgers. I can see them beating Pittsburgh but going farther than the ALDS is unlikely.

And with all this said...PLAY BALL!!

Also heres a look at my pre-season predictions...

Blue Jays to win the East? Nationals to win the World Series? Boy was I off...