Saturday, March 22, 2014

The Champions League Final Eight: Who Advances?


Over in the states, the NCAA Men's Basketball tournament is up and running. In Europe, the "Elite Eight" of their most prestigious football tourney was set this morning. There weren't many surprises, other than the fact that the four principal favorites (Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Barcelona, and PSG) were spread across the four ties. Whether this is some wizardry by UEFA in order to get the final they want is up for debate but even so, the quaterfinals look to some of the best games of the competition.

FC Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

Atletico have the tools; can they advance?
The last all-Spanish tie in Champions League came in 2011 when Barcelona defeated Real in the semis. The tie involves Barca and the lesser known neighbors from Madrid who have been causing problems for both La Liga heavyweights this season. This tie is difficult to call based simple off the fact that the three meetings between the two this season have been draws with a total of two goals scored. Atletico would appear to have all the things necessary to beat Barcelona, they've proven they could go toe to toe with them in an away leg. They have a star striker and strong back line, things that are invaluable in European competition. However, as a whole they still lack the European experience, the European experience of Messi, Iniesta, and Xavi. Barcelona is struggling in Spain but European competition is a different beast. Atletico has the tools to beat Barcelona, whether they'll be able to win has yet to be seen.

Prediction: Barcelona advances

Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund

The Bale-Ronaldo partnership is flourishing
Last year a strife-stricken Real Madrid team received a capitulation at the hands of Robert Lewandowski and Dortmund. However, this year the roles are reversed as it is now Dortmund who enter the game strife-stricken and Madrid enters in superb form. Rather than the bland, counter-attacking side that Jose Mourinho would put out each week, Carlo Ancelotti has turned Real into a maurauding force that has eased the burden on Cristiano Ronaldo. Real are rich with attacking options: Ronaldo, Benzema, Gareth Bale, Angel Di Maria, Luka Modric, etc. No team in Europe can match that level of attacking firepower. Madrid has been coldly dispatching everyone in their path. Dortmund meanwhile has seen their fortunes turn for the worse. Last years hero against Madrid, Lewandowski, is suspended for the first leg, robbing Dortmund of their attacking fulcrum. Also, if their display in the second leg against Zenit is any indication, the Dortmund defense might not be up to the task of stopping such a powerful opponent.

Prediction: Real Madrid, Dortmund will do enough to make things interesting but Real's form is too good at the moment

PSG vs Chelsea

The best strikers in Europe face their toughest test yet
Here we come to the most intriguing tie of them all. One one hand we have PSG who view this tie as a chance to prove that they are ready to make the leap into European royalty and claim the Champions League. For them, this would be proof that they have advanced under manager Laurent Blanc. For Chelsea, this offers Jose Mourinho a chance to go up against his former Inter man, Zlatan Ibrahimovic. The press conferences before these two games will be absolutely absurd if these two are involved. However, on the pitch, Jose Mourinho has brought his "boring" counter attacking style to Chelsea and it is that style that gives Chelsea the edge in this tie. Ibrahimovic and striking partner Edinson Cavani still get in each others way too often and even if they didn't, Mourinho is a master of taking the other team's star player out of the equation. However, the real question is whether Chelsea have enough attacking quality to hit at PSG, something that Thiago Silva will look to negate. Chelsea still lack an elite striker, their current strikers are all shadows of their former selves. PSG has those elite strikers, capable of drumming up magic which defies the tactics which Mourinho holds so dear. With that in mind, PSG should take this one.

Prediction: PSG win what should be a tense two legs

Bayern Munich vs Manchester United

United will need something special from their stars to beat Bayern
The Manchester United fans who have been so dormant during their shambolic season were out in force after their comeback in the second leg against Olympiakos. United fans are so ecstatic that they're hoping that such a win will lead United down the path of that 2012 Chelsea team which fluked their way to the title. However, such hopes were probably dashed when they received Bayern Munich in the draw, the cup holders and undoubtedly Europe's best team. The real question here is whether United stands a chance over the course of two legs. Yes United were impressive at home against Olympiakos but it should also be noted how open at the back they were. The game was largely a back and forth affair, the scoreline hardly reflecting how close the game actually was on the pitch. Bayern Munich is not Olympiakos, they have a ruthless streak that will punish United if they are that careless again. To win against Bayern, United will need their team in top form and they'll especially need the van Persie who showed up against Olympiakos. However, given that United have been a massive wild-card this season, it's hard to give them much of a chance.

Prediction: Bayern wins handily

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